A New Ottoman Empire?
The “big picture†in Africa and the Middle East is beginning to really interest me.
-> WikiLeaks reports that Islamic extremists are gaining power in Libya: Libya: WikiLeaks cables warn of extremist beliefs
-> Protests continue in Egypt despite Mubarak’s ouster. One cannot help but believe Islamic extremists benefit from the continued strife, added to the fact that Egypt was already becoming much more Islamic before the anti-Mubarak uprising.
-> “Nation building†in Iraq has proven a spectacular failure (as anyone with half a brain could have predicted). Once we leave (or are thrown out, like in Vietnam), Iraq will quickly be devoured by Iran.
-> The regime in Saudi Arabia is ripe for an overthrow. As Iran/Iraq/Egypt/Libya coalesce into a single power, the fall of Saudi Arabia will become inevitable.
-> A newly joined Iran/Iraq/Egypt/Libya/Saudi Arabia Islamic power will be able to swallow up Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, the Islamic portion of the newly divided Sudan and the tiny “oil states†in a single gulp.
-> Even Turkey, our erstwhile sometimes ally, a long-time secular nation, is becoming more Islamic by the day and would hardly be able to resist joining the new Caliphate.
What this all may add up to is a new Islamic empire much like the Ottoman empire of a century ago. Except that, this time, it will control the major portion of the world’s most vital fuel source. This will give it power and leverage beyond anything the Ottoman sultans ever could have imagined.
It seems to me that the power centers (the “super powersâ€) of the future will be the Islamic empire on the one the hand and an Asian/Indian coalition on the other.
But, I guess there is no reason for us to be concerned. By the time all this comes about, we will have completed our plan to become a third-world dictatorship.
Perhaps the United States, Canada, Australia and Russia will become “wheat republics†supplying the new super powers much like the “banana republics†and “coffee republics†of the 20th century did for us.
Hmmm… I wonder if the new super powers will be generous with foreign aid?
Troy L Robinson
The wikileaks link was most interesting. It gives pause to the popular notion that we should rush to enforce a no-fly zone. It also resonates with Gaddafi’s frequent lament that it is al qaeda who is behind the rebellion in his eastern Providences. â—„Daveâ–º
hey, I’m Egyptian …
a Nice Analysis, I agree that We will see Islamic regime at Egypt/Libya ,It must be Sunni. But the Islamic regime of Iraq/Iran is shiite. and there is a cold war between Sunni & Shiite , likes capitalism & communism.
So I think it’s imposible to see a new Islamic Empire in the near future. especially with Israel role at the region.
thanks
Welcome, Ahmed. I tend to agree. I have frequently made the same point to American leftist atheists, who seem scared to death that the fundamentalist Christian Right has an agenda to create a theocracy here. The sectarian battles over which of the multitude of Christian denominations would lead such a theocracy would make the squabbling between the Republicans and Democrats seem quaint. Muslims may agree over the issue of Israel, and Christians may agree over the issue of abortion; but neither will ever succeed in convincing their competing sects to accept rule by followers of the “wrong” dogma. â—„Daveâ–º
hey Dave, Sure I agree with you. but the Religious fundamentalists always have a common enemy (Secularism and liberalism). So they can unite to destroy the common enemy and build a theocracy, then they may see the other problems.
Such as what happened in the world war II : US (Capitalism) & Soviet (Communism) Vs NAZI. This is reflected in Iran’s support for the current uprisings at the Arab countries and even Iran’s support for Hamas.
In Egypt, I hope the failure of theocracy, but I know it’s our fate & This is its time. I expect a theocratic regime at Egypt on the shortterm. But I’m sure that It will fail quickly.
thanks
Welcome Ahmed and thanks for contributing.
I hope you are correct but, alas, I see the end of Israel coming soon after America ceases to be a super power — a fate I see as inevitable as we slide into dictatorship.
Troy
Really you have a great blog …
Why do you see America will slide into dictatorship? what are the factors that may kill the democracy in USA? I see this is very difficult
Can u direct me to a topic which discusses this ?
thanks
Ahmed,
I do not know of a specific place that discusses dictatorship in the US. Most of what I say is the result of my own analysis. I base my analysis mostly on two observable facts:
1: A tendency for all three branches of the US government to either ignore our Constitution or to consider it a “living document” that can be interpreted to mean whatever you want from moment to moment. This process has accelerated under our last 3 presidents (Clinton, Bush-2 and Obama).
2: The fact that Obama increasingly rules (rather than governs) by decree (executive order, having his regulatory agencies implement rules congress has refused to vote into law, etc.); tries to bypass traditional congressional consent through the appointment of “czars” who sometimes have more authority than cabinet heads, and the additional fact that he openly ignores the will of the people and is now in violation of at least 2 federal court orders (Obamacare and oil drilling although he disputes the latter).
To add to the situation, Obama has several times complained publicly about the constraints imposed on him by the Constitution and has commented (again recently) about how much easier it would be if he were president of China (i.e., a dictator).
This is my reasoning. Others may reach different conclusions.
Troy
This just in from BLOOMBERG:
“Voters in Egypt’s first referendum after the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak backed a set of constitutional changes that some critics say may favor established groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood in future elections.”
More at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-20/egypt-backs-constitutional-changes-that-may-aid-brotherhood-mubarak-party.html?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Morning%2BBell
Hi Troy,
Personally, I voted to approve the constitutional changes. And I know that it is in favor of the fundamentalist in Egypt at this moment. But We have lost our freedom and our rights under secular governments, It is natural that the Egyptian people heading to the the Islamic thought as an alternative to corruption and injustice caused by the secularity. Especially, we are a largely religious Society.
Many people said “Yes” to finish the current state of chaos. We need parliamentary and presidential elections quickly to finish the military rule.
A lot of people lost their jobs and income. more than 40% of Egyptians live with only 1$ per day. Crime controls the streets. Every morning our life getting worse. We need to end the revolution and return to normal life.
But I believe that democracy is able to correct itself.
The best way to destroy your political opponent is giving him the power.
Finally I told you that I’m sure that we will see an islamic regime in Egypt. but I think also that we will not see an Islamic Union because of amany reasons But certainly I hope this can be happen in the near future.
I can certainly understand your anxiety to return to a normal life, Ahmed. America is largely a religious society too; but damn few of us would accept rule by clerics! I wish you well; but your final statement confuses me:
Are you suggesting you hope for a caliphate in the near future? If so, would you wish it to eventually rule over the entire earth, America included? â—„Daveâ–º
((( Union Not Caliphate )))
hey Dave, I am a liberal so I refuse the religious rule. I think religion is very personal relationship between man and God.
The Caliphate became from the past, such as Romanian and Persian empire. Now The Arab youth dreams of unity such as the European Union among the Arab or Islamic countries. Which helps to get a better future for all of us. Therefore, we call it Union not Caliphate. because the caliphate is imperialistic Dictatorial regime and nobody needs this. I think there is a huge differance between them.
Finally … Islam, which I know does not want to rule the world it is just a religion which came to say that human beings will not go to heaven only because he knew God and pray all the day, This will not reduce or increase the majesty of God, but I can go to heaven through the philanthropy only. I must publish the peace, justice, liberty and security and do good and avoid evil and I can’t hurt anybody and I only have rights to fight for protecting my life, family, money and land.
To be a Muslim, I must believe all the teachings of Judaism, all the teachings of Christianity and the right of all human beings to life and to be free. We can not accept the occupation, because we suffered through a hundred years of the French and then British occupation, and we know its brutality.